Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

The president often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Jason Sherman
Jason Sherman

A seasoned network engineer with over a decade of experience in IT infrastructure and cybersecurity.

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